Weaponized Interdependence and Dynamics of Partial Decoupling: Chokepoints, Adaptation, and the Security Dilemma in Advanced Technologies
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62327/rj3nfd17t4Keywords:
China, U.S.-China Relations, Decoupling, TechnologyAbstract
This paper examines the erosion of U.S.–China technological engagement through the lens of weaponized interdependence. It focuses specifically on advanced technology sectors, particularly semiconductors, as a representative case study. Through examining U.S. export restraints after the first Trump administration, this paper argues that current instability in U.S.– China relations arises less from complete ideological divergence or failure of outright containment policy than from a structured reaction–counterre- action dynamic triggered by chokepoint activation. When the United States employs export controls and allied coordination to manage perceived technological risks, China responds through defensive reconfiguration aimed at reducing asymmetric vulnerability, in addition to retaliation in rare-earth export controls. Over time, these interactions generate three structural transformations: supply-chain reconfiguration, substitution, and regulations reinforcing segmentation. While previous literature is based primar- ily on the short-term effectiveness of coercion, this paper shifts attention to technological restraints’ longer-term structural consequences. In summary, this paper suggests that technological interdependence is not dissolving but being selectively restructured. The result is a durable condition of partial, segmented decoupling in which interdependence persists under increasingly politicized rules of access.
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